We humans seem to be particularly sensitive to vicious cycles.
Describe the cycle and identify the elements on it.
Turn them into variables by asking "what is it about these elements that matters here?"
Identify the relationships - Note that there will be either no opposing relationships or an even number of them.
Vicious (and virtuous cycles) are always reinforcing loops.
Note that this means we "only" have to change the direction of one variable to change the behavior.
Hospital Beds is an example of a reinforcing loop based on an article (paragraph).